The Boston Red Sox’s seeming resistance to Alex Bregman makes sense only if the team is playing a game of chicken with agent Scott Boras, believing Bregman won’t go to Toronto and the Detroit Tigers won’t pay him.
Seven years ago, the Red Sox employed a similar strategy with another Boras free agent, J.D. Martinez, who reportedly sought $200 million. Martinez, primarily a DH, had a limited market. The Red Sox held firm, and wound up signing him on Feb. 26 to a five-year, $110 million guarantee.
If the Red Sox succeed in taking the same approach with Bregman, more power to them. He’s the right-handed hitting stalwart they need, and it doesn’t matter if they sign him on Jan. 10, Feb. 10 or even March 10, as long as they get a deal done. The same is true for the New York Mets and another of Boras’ free agents, first baseman Pete Alonso.
The problem with delaying is that some other club might make a surprise move, the way the Arizona Diamondbacks did with right-hander Corbin Burnes. And for the Red Sox, here’s the crazy part: It’s not even clear they want Bregman, who arguably makes more sense for them than Alonso does for the Mets.
During the Winter Meetings, Mass Live reported that while manager Alex Cora and team president Sam Kennedy advocated signing Bregman, some members of the baseball operations staff, including chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, were not eager to strike a deal.
If the anti-Bregman contingent views Bregman’s price as too high, that’s one thing. Three of the Sox’s biggest recent deals — Chris Sale for five years, $145 million, Trevor Story for six years, $140 million and Masataka Yoshida for five years, $90 million — turned problematic. But risk is inherent in all long-term agreements. And for the 983rd time, we’re talking about the Boston Red Sox, not some small-market operation.
The Red Sox should not be worrying about Bregman blocking top prospect Kristian Campbell at second base. They should be figuring out how to use Campbell at other positions or make him or fellow infield prospect Marcelo Mayer the centerpiece of another Garrett Crochet-type trade. Yet, rather than act creatively and decisively, they’re adhering to the same type of rigid thinking that cost them, ahem, Mookie Betts.
Kristian Campbell saw action at three minor-league levels in 2024, including Triple-A Worcester. (Jonathan Tenca/ Cal Sport Media via Associated Press)
Bregman isn’t Betts. His walk rate cratered last season. His OPS+ has declined each of the past two years. But entering his age-31 season he’s still a quality player, and he would bring rare leadership, not to mention 99 games of postseason experience. As opposed to a trade for the St. Louis Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado, Bregman’s willingness to move from third base to second also would enable the Red Sox to keep Rafael Devers at third, not that they should be excited by such a defensive compromise.
The bigger issue is the Sox’s continued reluctance to spend big. A Boston Tea Party-type anger would be fitting at the team’s Fenway Fest fan event on Saturday, even as the club trumpets its trade for Crochet and signings of free-agent righty Walker Buehler, lefty Patrick Sandoval and lefty relievers Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson. None cost more than Buehler’s $21.05 million.
Fenway Fest replaces the team’s Winter Weekend in western Massachusetts, where ownership was booed the past two years. Each ticket — $85 for adults, $35 for children, with “discounts” of $75 and $30 for season-ticket holders — includes a voucher for a 2025 Red Sox home game in April or May. Once upon a time, the Sox had no problem moving game tickets separately.
Say this for the Sox, though: No one in their ownership group has provided fans with an instant catchphrase this offseason, the way chairman Tom Werner did a year ago when he pledged the team would go “full throttle” trying to build a contender. Kennedy, at least, is delivering empty promises in full sentences.
“I can tell you this ownership group feels urgency and hunger to explore every avenue to improve and build upon this team to get back into the postseason,” Kennedy told reporters on Sept. 30.
At the owners’ meetings in November, in the middle of the Sox’s pursuit of Juan Soto, Kennedy described an “extreme urgency internally” after three straight years of missing the playoffs, two of which ended in last-place finishes.
“Even if it takes us over the CBT, our priority is 90 to 95 wins, and winning the American League East, and winning the division for multiple years,” Kennedy said.
The “CBT” is the $241 million competitive-balance tax threshold, and the Sox are about as close to it as Boston is to Tokyo. Wait, that’s unfair: The Sox are at $211.55 million, only about an Alex Bregman away.
Ninety to 95 wins? As presently constituted, the Red Sox look more like an 85-win club that could end up with 88 and sneak into the postseason. In a weakened American League, why do they keep operating like an AL Central wild-card hopeful? They are not better than the New York Yankees, and probably not better than the Baltimore Orioles. They just want to make the playoffs at the cheapest possible price.
Bregman, mind you, turned down a reported six-year, $156 million offer, an average of $26 million per season, from his previous team, the Houston Astros. Texas is a state with no income tax. Boras, to justify Bregman’s spurning of the Astros, presumably would want the Sox, or any other team in a state that charges income tax, to account for the difference. The amount might be relatively small; players pay income tax in the locations where they play, and only half of their games are at home.
Of course, Boras does not always get what he wants. By holding out, perhaps the Red Sox could get Bregman on a shorter contract with opt-outs and a high average annual value. Matt Chapman signed such a deal with the Giants last offseason — three years, $54 million — then opted out and turned it into a six-year, $151 million extension.
Bregman is a better hitter than Chapman and not quite as good a defender. The Athletic’s Tim Britton predicted he would land a seven-year, $189 million deal, just $1 million more per season and one year longer than the Astros offered. If Boras is asking for much more than that, it’s perhaps reasonable for the Sox to stand down. But as they keep saying no to big-money free agents, the question becomes, “What will it take for them to say yes?”
Bregman is the best fit among the remaining impact free agents, other than perhaps closer Tanner Scott. The Red Sox didn’t sign Burnes or Max Fried, Willy Adames or Teoscar Hernández. Perhaps owner John Henry is waiting for Betts’ 1-year-old son, Kaj, to hit the market, so he can right that wrong once and for all.
The Sox are gambling that Buehler’s final 10 innings in the postseason are a better indication of his ability than his 5.38 ERA in 16 regular-season starts coming off Tommy John surgery. They can’t count on Sandoval returning from his own TJ last June, or Chapman dominating at age 37. Crochet is their only addition who seems close to a sure thing.
Bregman is darn near close to that. If the Sox are playing a game of chicken with Boras, they had better win. If their interest in Bregman is muted, they had better have a good reason. And if and when Fenway Fest turns into Frustration Fest, they will have only themselves to blame.
(Top photo of Alex Bregman: Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)