Louisville vs. Virginia preview – Card Chronicle

Louisville Cardinals (13-5, 6-1) vs. Virginia Cavaliers (8-9, 1-5)

Game Time: Noon

Location: KFC Yum Center: Louisville, Ky.

Television: ESPN2

Announcers: Kevin Brown (play-by-play) and Chris Spatola (analysis)

Officials: Ted Valentine, Sean Hull, Kellen Miliner

Favorite: Louisville by 15.5

Series: Virginia leads, 24-6

Last Meeting: Louisville won 70-50 on Jan. 4 in Charlottesville

Series History:

Projected Starting Lineups:

Louisville

• G Chucky Hepburn (6-2, 190, Sr.)
• G Reyne Smith (6-2, 190, Sr.)
• G J’Vonne Hadley (6-6, 215, Sr.)
• G/F Terrence Edwards Jr. (6-6, 205, Sr.)
• C James Scott (6-11, 220, So.)

Virginia

• G Dai Dai Ames (6-1, 190, So.)
• G Isaac McKneely (6-4, 195, Jr.)
• G Andrew Rohde (6-6, 200, Jr.)
• F Elijah Saunders (6-8, 240, Jr.)
• F Jacob Cofie (6-10, 232, Fr.)

Statistics:

Virginia’s Season to Date:

Relevant Videos:

About Virginia:

Not a ton has changed in 14 days, which was the last time we did this, but here goes anyway.

Perhaps no program in college basketball has had a more tumultuous last four months than Virginia.

On Oct. 18, national championship winning head coach Tony Bennett abruptly stepped away from the program after 15 seasons as the face of Cavalier hoops. Ron Sanchez, who had previously been the head coach at Charlotte, was immediately elevated to the position of interim head coach. He inherited a team that was the preseason pick to finish fifth in the ACC, but those expectations may have been overly optimistic given the uneven roster that Bennett had assembled.

Like Louisville, Virginia was put through the ringer by its early season schedule. Four of UVA’s first five losses came against teams currently ranked in the AP top 25 poll. The other, a 64-62 home loss to Memphis State, came against a team with NCAA tournament aspirations.

UVA has a nice win over Villanova, but there’s not a ton else there to write home about. The Cavs have lost four straight games coming into Saturday, with their most recent being an absolute backbreaker against SMU where they were outscored 9-2 in the game’s closing moments.

The Hoos have really struggled outside of John Paul Jones Arena. Virginia is 0-4 in true road games so far this season, and all four of those losses have come by 12 points or more. Overall, they are 1-6 in games played outside of Charlottesville.

Stylistically, Virginia doesn’t look much different under Sanchez than it did under Bennett. The pack line defense is still the team’s drug of choice, and they’re still playing at the second slowest pace in all of Division-I.

The biggest difference between these Cavaliers and the ones that dominated Louisville for the last decade is their lack of consistency on the offensive end.

Virginia enters the weekend ranked just 229th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. They turn the ball over far more than we’re used to seeing, and lack the dynamic playmakers necessary to make opposing defenses uncomfortable. That said, they do shoot the three at a 35.5 percent clip, good for 82nd-best in the sport. That number was three percentage points higher than it was before the Cards held them 5-of-26 from beyond the arc two weeks ago.

Junior guard Isaac McKneely is still the team’s most consistent performer on offense. McKneely torched Louisville in Charlottesville last season and was ok against them a couple of weeks ago, knocking down 3-of-7 from deep and scoring 13 points.

McKneely, like most players on UVA’s team, struggles with heavy ball pressure. He’s not a significant threat in one-on-one situations, but U of L’s defenders have to be aware of where he is on the floor at all times once UVA gets into its motion offense. He currently ranks second in the ACC in three-point percentage (41.6%) and three-pointers made per game (2.8).

Speaking of, expect Sanchez to once again lean heavy on motion-based actions throughout this game to try and get outside looks for guys like McKneely, Elijah Saunders and Jacob Cofie. As mentioned, Virginia struggles mightily with ball pressure and that’s the name of the game defensively for the Cards. Limiting the amount of time Andrew Rohde and Dai Dai Ames are dribbling with Chucky Hepburn and Terrence Edwards in their jerseys will be key for UVA’s efforts to force live ball turnovers and limit Louisville’s transition opportunities.

Defensively, we know what Virginia is going to do. They don’t do it as well as they did during the peak of the Bennett era, but they still do it well.

The Cards made great decisions with the ball and took great shots against UVA in the first meeting between the two teams. Do the same thing again on Saturday and they should find a similar amount of success.

Notable:

—Despite playing Virginia two times in every season but one (2020-21) since joining the ACC a decade ago, Louisville has never swept its regular season series with the Cavaliers. A win on Saturday would change that.

—In this game, Louisville will wear uniforms that honor the Dirt Bowl, a summer tournament that is integral in the history of basketball in the city.

—Virginia is riding a four-game losing streak for the first time since the 2016-17 season.

—Louisville hasn’t defeated Virginia inside the KFC Yum Center since Feb. 9, 2020.

—Saturday marks the first time in series history that Louisville has been a double-digit favorite over Virginia.

—It also marks the first time that Louisville has been a double-digit favorite in a conference game since Feb. 5, 2020.

—Louisville has won seven consecutive games for the first time since a 10-game winning streak in 2020 that lasted from Jan. 7-Feb. 8 of that year.

—Louisville has won six consecutive ACC games for the first time since that same 10-game winning streak in 2020.

—Virginia had won nine straight games over Louisville before the Cardinals’ 70-50 win in Charlottesville on Jan. 4. UVA has still won 18 of the last 20 meetings in the series.

—Louisville redshirt center Aly Khalifa is up against his former head coach for a third time this season. Virginia’s Ron Sanchez coached Khalifa at Charlotte for two seasons before he played for current Kentucky head coach Mark Pope at BYU.

—Chucky Hepburn is 11th in the country in steals per game at 2.50 and eighth in total steals with 45.

—Reyne Smith is third in the country in total three-pointers made (64), third in total three-point attempts (163) and sixth in three-pointers per game (3.56).

—James Scott is sixth in the country in dunks with 37, the most of any player in the ACC.

—Virginia is 10-2 all-time at the KFC Yum Center, including a pair of wins at the 2019 NCAA South Regional. They are 8-2 inside the building in games against Louisville.

—Louisville is 14-0 over the past 10 seasons when limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.

—Since 2004, Louisville is 131-0 when leading by more than 10 points at halftime.

—Louisville is 115-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.

—Louisville has won 163 consecutive games when holding an opponent under 50 points.

Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville 71, Virginia 57