Woody Johnson nixed a trade for Jerry Jeudy because of Madden ratings?
To everyone in the NFL world, this was a shocking piece of news to hear about the New York Jets’ owner. However, Baltimore Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta may not have been quite as shocked as most others.
In an interview with “The McShay Show” on Wednesday, DeCosta was speaking about the balance between analytics and film when evaluating draft prospects (a segment affectionately labeled “Nerds vs. Meatheads” by the show). While explaining why he and the Ravens value analytical models to predict the success of draft prospects, DeCosta revealed a surprising ingredient in Baltimore’s models… Madden ratings.
“A lot of other stuff too, that we use [in our models]. For instance, Madden ratings,” DeCosta said. “Who would ever think that an NFL team would use Madden ratings in one of their models? Well, we do. Just a small piece of what we do.”
Justice for Woody (and Brick) Johnson?
Of course, this does not fully vindicate the Jets’ owner for his follies that contributed to the team’s 14-year playoff drought. Still, it is fascinating to hear one of the NFL’s most respected general managers state that citing Madden ratings is not as preposterous as people may have thought.
The rest of DeCosta’s answer is worth hearing as well, especially with draft season upon us.
“So we have these models that we use, and it spits out grades and values for players. And we use those. In some cases, we can look back and say, ‘You know what? The model is actually three percent better than our scouts’ grades in terms of predicting what the player is going to do.’”
Baltimore has been one of the best-drafting franchises over the past two decades. If they are valuing analytical models, you can be certain that other teams are trying to copy their success.
DeCosta was a longtime scout, eventually becoming the Ravens’ assistant general manager for seven seasons before being promoted to the GM position in 2019. It’s a very similar path to the one taken by Darren Mougey, a longtime Denver Broncos scout who worked his way up to assistant general manager and then earned a GM job with the Jets this year.
Mougey’s position in the “Nerds vs. Meatheads” debate is currently unknown, although there are breadcrumbs from his Denver days that might provide some clues. If Mougey is wise, though, he will heed the advice of DeCosta and find a healthy balance between the two sides.
DeCosta does not come from a “nerd” background. He is what you would call a through-and-through “football guy.” He was a college linebacker and rose through the NFL ranks as a scout in Baltimore, a franchise long known for its lunch pail mentality. Yet, he has embraced and touted the value of analytics in player evaluation. If DeCosta can do it, so can other GMs from similar backgrounds.
Perhaps DeCosta’s comments are most noteworthy for their relation to Woody Johnson’s highly publicized Jerry Jeudy fiasco, but they also serve as knowledge worth absorbing for the Jets’ new GM.